A Bayesian Change-point Model for Describing Partial Semelparity of a Neotropical Didelphid Marsupial

Post-reproductive survival defines the position of any given species in the continuum from semelparity, a condition in which males die after one breeding season and females can survive for a second year, to iteroparity, a condition in which males have multiple mating opportunities over the length of their adult lives. Based on a capture-recapture study for open populations, it was previously described that a neotropic didelphid marsupial, the Brazilian gracile mouse opossum (Gracilinanus microtarsus) is partially semelparous, a condition in which mortality after the first mating is high but graded over time, with a fraction of males surviving for a second breeding season. Here we explore Bayesian change-point models for detecting a shift on the availability over time of the males in the field due to partial semelparity. Such methodology allows for more precise specification of the time when postmating begins.